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Case study - Impact of Forecast in Business

By Prem Sankar C
How a qualitative Forecast will effect today's Business ?
The forecasts by influential research firms will have a deeper impact on today's business environment. Here I analyse some recent cases .I don't know more about the methodology they are used ,but  it is not just trend forecasting alone.

Case Study 1: Indian Coffee price fall due to forecast

 Forecast of better crop harvest in foreign countries spreads a negative sentiments in Indian Coffee markets .The forecast of massive harvest from Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam are negatively impacting the Indian coffee prices .Forecast for an improved crop in Colombia and big crop being harvested in Vietnam next month has resulted in the drop in prices . 

Buyers are thinking that coffee will be cheaper in near future due to huge crop availability .  The slowdown in demand from the major buyers has resulted in the decline in prices .

 Case study 2 : Effect of IDC forecast on Apple 

Recently Apple lost $35 bn dollar due to worst share price fall in 4 years due recent forecast by IDC  .Apple shares fall  6.4pc to $538.79, the biggest one-day drop since December 17, 2008,  America’s biggest company  lost almost $35bn off its market value due this forecast.

The sell-off, fueled by the forecast that "Apple’s share of the tablet market will slip to 53.8pc this year from 56.3pc in 2011,  while Google’s share will increase to 42.7pc from 39.8pc ". Apple suffered its worst one-day share price fall in almost four years on fears it was losing market share to rivals

IDC forecast on Tablet Market - Report from research firm IDC  forecasting that Apple’s share of  the tablet market will slip  to 53.8pc this year from 56.3pc in 2011,  while Google’s share will increase to 42.7pc from 39.8pc. It added that Apple’s tablet share will slip below  50pc by 2016, as total global tablet sales more than double  to nearly 283m units in four years as consumers increasingly opt for them rather than personal computers.
IDC's forecast on Apple



References 

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/1070694/apple-profit-forecast-falls-short-market-target

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-suffers-worst-share-price-234138698.html

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